Friday, April 16, 2010

Three Dead Ends

I'll just be honest and tell you that, "I got nothin'."
For a while, my posts were all opinion, using witty banter and some generalizations that I see in the world of sports to drive home something I just felt to be the truth.
Lately, I've been trying to be more statistics- and research- based with my writing, and I feel like I've come up with some of my better posts.
Tonight, I had no such luck.
Here are the three false trails that I followed:
1: Mike Woodson is a far better coach than local media gives him credit for.
While I still think this is true, I just couldn't find the numbers to really prove it beyond pure win totals.
His teams have never improved by less than four games from the previous year's record, but, other than that, the stats were just too fuzzy.
Mike Bibby remained the same player statistically after joining the Hawks, Josh Smith was an 18-year-old rookie the year before Woodson came (making his improvement natural), and Joe Johnson saw small improvement that could be explained by his transition to a bigger role in Atlanta's game plan.
So, BONK, that won't work...
2: Kevin Durant doesn't get to the free throw line THAT much.
Actually, yeah he does.
He attempted 99 more field goals than Kobe Bryant this year, and he took 254 more free throws than the Dobermamba. (yeah I'm keeping that nickname around)
Even if you divide that number in half to account for the idea that many free throws come in pairs, it's 127 more trips to the line compared to only 99 more shots from the field.
To oversimplify it, that's 28 fouls that Kobe just doesn't get.
I even thought that a higher percentage of Kobe's shots are from the outside, so maybe he doesn't play in traffic as much.
WRONG.
Durant took 50 more threes than Kobe this year, and Kobe got called for 16 more fouls himself than the Durantula did.
So Phil Jackson may be right, and that's a... BONK... next?
3: Who's the REAL MVP of the NBA?
Yeah, I did an advanced combination of field goal percentage, free throw percentage, percentage of player points to team points per game, same for rebounds, and same for assists.
Then, I thought, "Team results ought to come into play somehow..."
Thus, I factored in playoff seeding and distance out of the playoffs for the twelve players I was analyzing.
When those numbers came out too normal, I tried to account for team improvement from last year's finishes.
You know what I found out?
Lebron James should be the league MVP, followed by Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Dwight Howard.
That sounds oddly like what the votes will most likely be.
Oh yeah, D-Wade was sixth and Kevin Durant's assist numbers really killed him.
So I did about thirty minutes worth of math to find out that I didn't need to do thirty minutes of math to decide who should be the NBA MVP.
What lesson did I learn, kids?
You CAN write a blog post about how you had nothing about which to write a blog post!

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