Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Do you feel a slight Draft?

The title of this post is cheesy, I admit, but I wanted to rant for a few minutes about what I perceive to be the problems with the NFL and NBA drafts.
I won't address the MLB Draft because, well, it's REALLY complicated to me.
I also won't address the NHL Draft because... wait... is there an NHL draft? I mean, I'm sure there is, but it gets less coverage than my fantasy football league draft. I bet it's on Versus...
Anyway, I got to thinking the other day about how huge draft coverage has become and even the way teams draft players now.
Then I read a column by ESPN.com's Bill Simmons about the effects of the NCAA basketball tourney on draft status and my mind went to racing.
My first statement is that dividing NFL Draft coverage into three days is a huge risk.
Basically, ESPN better hope Tim Tebow doesn't get drafted in the first round.
If he does, and there's a clean break between rounds one and two, no one will watch the second day of coverage.
Under the old format, a casual sports addict like me might keep watching the draft to see how early Pat White got taken in the second round.
I'm certainly not going to devote a whole second night's effort to finding out if Terrance Cody will be a Lion or a Bear (oh my!... sorry).
Tebow or McCoy may draw a TV crowd if one or both fall into the second night, but that's about it.
Second, I could not possibly care less what a guy does at his pro day.
Maybe I just don't know what I'm talking about, and surely that's got to be it, but I'm not impressed with how Sam Bradford throws under zero pressure in a t-shirt and shorts when he and Bob Stoops decided it was time for everybody to see Sam throw.
I actually heard a talking head say on the radio, and apparently ESPN agrees, that Bradford had "erased all doubts" about his physical toughness with his chiseled physique at Sammy Day.
SERIOUSLY?
Did the following conversation really happen?
Scout A: "Jeez, look at the guns on Bradford!"
Scout B: "And those pecs! I totally just forgot he got hurt on normal hits the last two times he touched the field in live action."
Scout A: "Me too. Surely all that extra weight in muscle will make his shoulder less susceptible to injury."
Scout B: "I know right? In fact, I think I would take him with the first overall pick simply because of how meaty he looks, and, ooohh.... that's the prettiest undefended 65-yard pass I've seen since JaMarcus Russell's pro day. Man, we're good at this!"
In regards to how I would draft for particularly these two sports, I would look for three things: talent, wins, and durability.
Bradford has the first two, unquestionably. He threw for fifty touchdowns in his 2008-2009 season in which he won the Heisman trophy, and he won 23 games and two Big 12 titles as a starter.
Durability-wise, he's shaky.
Not that he's always been that way, but when was the last time you saw Sam Bradford in a game where he didn't get hurt?
January 8, 2009, against Florida in the National Title Game.
That's over a year ago, folks.
My third ranting point is in regards to the NBA Draft, mainly.
Call me old-fashioned, but... (you actually did it, right? Good.) ... I wouldn't draft a "one-and-done" guy like John Wall unless he was available in the second round.
I wouldn't draft him then if I didn't need a guard.
I don't care how talented he is, and I don't care about how good he supposedly is in clutch situations.
First of all, I want to see how well he plays when over half of the guys guarding him have played against him before.
In one NBA season, Wall will play against everyone twice a year, conference foes three times, and division opponents four times.
When or if he gets to the playoffs, Wall might have to face off against the same point gaurd that he already faced at least three times for seven more games.
He's played Tennessee three times, and the other teams in his division plus Mississippi State and Alabama twice. Other than that, he's feasting off of point guards that have never played against him before.
By the way, Wall's scoring looks like this against Tennessee in three games: 24, 19 (lost), 14.
Against Miss. St.: 18, 17.
Against Alabama: 22, 23 (he actually got better).
Against Vanderbilt: 13, 13.
Against Georgia: 17, 24.
Against Florida: 19, 11.
Against South Carolina: 19 (lost), 12 .
Thus, of the seven teams that played against him more than once, only two teams failed to hold him to fewer points.
The most disturbing part is the fact that he scored fewer points the next time he, as a star who was held to under twenty points in a loss, played a team that beat "his" Wildcats.
That brings me to my next point about the "one-and-done" athletes.
They leave too much to be accomplished in many cases.
Sure, Wall and the 'Cats won an SEC title and got a top seed in the Big Dance, but he didn't lead his team to a national championship, or even a Final Four for that matter.
If I'm an NBA general manager or coach, what makes me think Wall will be any more committed to winning a title?
I would feel much better about drafting a guy who came back to college to beat the guys who beat him last year and win the titles that have yet to be won.
I want a guy who got ticked off that he went three years without sniffing the Final Four and came back to cut down some nets.
That's the guy that might stay in New Jersey or Sacramento or Philadelphia just to say he brought a title to that town.
There... I think I'm done draft ranting... just in time for an "oh by the way" related to my last post.
Duke's tournament record against team's ranked in the ESPN.com RPI top twenty at the end of the season is now 3-0, having defeated #18 Cal, #16 Purdue, and #8 Baylor.
Each of the other top seeds lost to the first RPI Top 20 they faced, which in Kentucky's case was their fourth game.
Duke is so lucky they got an easy bracket.

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